The sun always shines on TV
01 December 2008
Or to use another song title from a few years earlier – ‘Reasons to be cheerful’. The LCD TV market appears to know no bounds according to the figures released from iSuppli this week (Anticipating reduced growth). This has to be a reason for being cheerful.
What has it got to do with me, you might ask, I don’t make TVs? In the grand scheme of things, not many people do make TVs and it is clear from iSuppli’s report that once you look beyond the hugely impressive growth figures in terms of units (now forecast to rise over 20% in 2009 to 112 million), there is an obvious slowing effect as a result of the economy.
Beyond the actual downward revision of these forecasts (the original prediction was for 124 million units next year), the report also highlights the downward pressure on prices as stock builds up, and so margins are tight. The low prices themselves are then a stimulant in the market which then helps maintain a strong growth.
The upside of this is that this large niche in the market is oiling the wheels for many related products. It is not uncommon for people to be looking at various bits of ancillary equipment when buying a TV – DVD recorders, digital receivers, surround sound, iPod docks and the like – that are not always part of the main system. What is more is that this is an area of the market which is still being fuelled by constant progress in technology. The cross-over between TVs and games consoles, the transition to digital in most countries, the adoption of Blu-ray and acceptance of HD, the use of the TV for computing and internet and the ‘cinema in your home’ are just some of the ways in which a TV is becoming more than just a TV. Now that the sleek flat screens that were out of the price range of most families only a couple of years ago have become affordable, the reasons for the continued success of this sector are no surprise.
I feel the problem of our generation may resurface once more if 2009 does turn out to be a difficult year for the economy. It really is the Moore’s Law equivalent for televisions. So much progress is being made and prices falling so quickly, that there is a good argument for the average consumer to wait for a while and be comfortable that their job is safe and that what he or she buys will be reasonably contemporary, from a technology point of view, for a few years to come. I suspect that we are getting closer to that stage now. It really was not that long ago that a large flat-screen television had poor quality and an enormous price tag. The quality has come on leaps and bounds and the prices slashed, so I really suspect it is when the digital (receiver) offering settles down that the picture becomes clearer (sorry for the pun).
I also suspect that the trend to expand the use of televisions (for the above functions like computing and communications) will continue, although there is a problem with this too. I speak from the heart when I say this, as a father of two (nearly) teenage children, it is hard enough to get them to switch the TV off as it is, I really can’t think that the suggestion of turning it off so that I could set up the live video link to Uncle Bert in Australia would be met with anything more polite, or constructive, than ‘Use the phone’.
Happy viewing.
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