Hello Sunshine
04 February 2008
Having spent a week in permanent darkness, Anand Sethi has seen the light regarding solar energy. But which technology will win the race to provide a manufacturable solution?
When you are in a wintry dark, icy cold country with daily sub zero temperatures, lots of rain, snow and slush, not surprisingly you start reminiscing about the Sun. This is what happened to me in Finland where I was all of last week. To cheer myself up, I started to list all the song titles that I knew that contained the word ‘sun’. The title of this piece was an obvious one, and so were “Here comes the sun” and “Good day sunshine” (The Beatles), “Sun is shining” (Bob Marley), “You are the sunshine of my life” (Stevie Wonder). But two pieces of news relating to the sun during the past week were even more thought provoking.
First was about the inaugural ‘World Future Energy Summit’ in Abu Dhabi with Solar Power as the key topic, (naturally, not forgetting the carbon saving participation by Prince Charles via a 3-D holographic presence saving on air miles). The second news item was about Israel’s decision to rely exclusively on electric cars, with solar powered battery charge points and collection points. All of a sudden you say ‘Hey Presto’! Isn’t that the real future – the free greenest energy source from the ‘fire’ above, not forgetting the ‘fire’ below (Geothermal energy).
With about 5KWh/ sq. mtr. a day of global solar radiation level available for free, it is hardly surprising that in the times of oil at $100 per barrel, we really need to start paying attention to the ‘fire’ above. In India alone, with an average of some 300 sunny days a year, India receives approximately 5,000 trillion KWh solar energy annually. The Energy and Resources Institute (TERI) estimates that if only one per cent of the total land is used to harness this solar energy then even using an abysmal conversion efficiency of two per cent approximately 600,000MW of solar based power can be produced in the country.
So it is really high time the world started to pay much needed attention to the possibilities of Solar based power. Abu Dhabi, for instance, announced the setting up of MASDAR (the world’s first zero carbon, zero waste city) at the ‘World Future Energy Summit’. MASDAR City will have in excess of 180 MW of Solar Power, and towards planning for this, more than 20 international Photovoltaic power system manufacturers have entered into a competition of sorts with rankings to be determined on the basis of conversion efficiency, cost efficiency and durability.
More interestingly is the fact that the global technology leaders are finally moving beyond the traditional silicon wafer photovoltaic cell based small systems with conversion efficiencies in the 15 per cent to 20 per cent range. The target now has moved towards achieving in excess of 30% conversion efficiency within the next five years which could conceivably make solar power achieve near ‘Grid Parity’ economics. Thus, solar power for grid supply, even in urban areas of the developed as well as the developing world is no longer a pipe dream.
According to the European Photovoltaic Industry Association, Year 2007 saw approximately 2.3 Gigawatt of newly established Solar Power systems in the world representing a massive 40% growth over 2006. Four countries, viz. Germany, Japan, USA and Spain have taken taken the lead, but Germany with 50% of the world market is clearly right on top. In 2007 Germany by itself added in excess of 1 Gigawatt of solar power (enough to power medium sized cities) of which 400 MW was in what may be considered Grid Supply projects. Little wonder then, that the German company Solar Millenium AG has 1000 MW of solar plants already in the pipeline, and another company, Juwi International, will start to construct at Leipzig a 40 MW photovoltaic power plant, the world’s largest ever and almost four times the size of the current largest at Seville, Spain.
Seville’s Solar Power Tower, a 11MW plant that looks similar to Sauron’s ‘Mordor Lighthouse’ in ‘Lord of the Rings’, is the first stage of Europe’s first commercial solar power station that will eventually have a capacity of 300MW, enough to power 180,000 homes or almost all of Seville. It is reported that such large Solar Power Towers will eventually be able to generate power at an eye popping 5 US cents per KWh only!
The fascinating aspect for readers of this column is the competition between the various photovoltaic technologies to become the technology of choice for grid supply and other large solar power stations. So, we have for instance the standard silicon based proponents who are trying to gain higher conversion efficiencies by tweaking their processes and in the case of Sol Focus Inc., even going to the extent of redesigning the panels themselves. Sol Focus uses curved mirrors that magnify the sun’s rays up to 500 times, concentrating them onto a tiny solar cell that converts into electricity far more efficiently than conventional panels.
Then there are the thin film approach proponents led by Sharp Corp., which is boosting its production capacity from 15MW per year to 1,000MW. But Sharp now faces stiff competition from First Solar of Phoenix, Arizona (Funded by Wal-Mart heir, John Walton), a company which has recently seen an astronomical increase in its market capitalization going up to $ 8 billion. First Solar’ s thin film panels are comparatively cheaper because they use only 1% of the conventional semiconductor material found in conventional solar panels. The production method reportedly involves feeding a sheet of glass into a pressurized chamber filled with cadmium telluride gas, which condenses in a thin uniform layer onto the glass.
There are those who are taking the nanotechnology route, such as Nanosolar Inc., of California. Their process involves printing an ink, filled with nano particles of copper indium gallium selenide onto rolls of shiny foil. Interestingly, equipment and process major, Applied Materials Inc., is also betting big on nanotechnology based solar power solutions. Their Solar Business Group is actively promoting the concept of uniformly coating large sheets (6 sq. mtrs.) of glass with 10 nanometers of appropriate material. Applied Materials is betting big on the enormous potential of solar based power in India and are designing factory plans for developing 1,000 MW solar power panels in India. The company already has in India 45 people working for the solar power business and about 1,000 in advanced materials based research.
As we wait to see which technology finally wins, we are already seeing tremendous market interest in the sector. Even silicon based companies such as Germany’s Q-Cells, Suntech Power Holdings of China and Sunpower in the US have witnessed enormous stock market interest even in the current international financial situation. As far as India is concerned Tata- BP Solar and Sharp are rapidly expanding capacities. Moser Baer, one of the world’s largest manufacturers of magnetic media has kicked off a production capacity that will eventually reach 500MW per annum. Large industrial houses such as Reliance and Videocon are also getting into the fray.
So, welcome, ‘Sun Glorious Sun”!
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