Can 1982 be 25 Years Ago?
13 August 2007
EMTWorldWide asked the SMART Group to gaze into their crystal balls and predict what would happen in the next 25 years. Ron Lasky was first up and started by taking a quick look back 25 years to 1982 – the year Electronics Manufacture & Test magazine was launched.
Can it be that it has been 25 years? Britney wasn’t born yet, Tiger was 15 years away from his first Masters win, and the Berlin Wall looked like it would stand forever. The year was 1982. And electronics has changed immeasurably since then, right? Well maybe not. While it is true that Moore’s Law has dramatically changed integrated circuits and technologies such as SMT assembly have worked with IC improvement to miniaturise all electronic devices, the fundamental nature of electronic consumer devices hasn’t changed that much. Not convinced? Considered these early 1980 devices and modern counterparts:
1. The Sony Walkman becomes the iPOD
2. Motorola’s “Brick” cellular phone becomes the Razr
3. The Apple II or PC becomes today’s MacIntosh or Laptop PC
4. The VCR becomes the DVD player
5. The Early Video Recorder becomes the Camcorder/Digital Camera
So my argument is that with all of the technical advances that have occurred in the past 25 years, we have not really seen a fundamentally new personal electronics device developed. OK, I did miss the personal data assistant (PDA) which did not have a counterpart in the early 1980s and perhaps the personal global positioning system (GPS). Both of these technologies appear to be being aggressively integrated into our cellular phones. Clearly the dramatic improvements in IC, packaging, assembly and design, have made some of the newer devices almost unrecognisable as compared to their forebearers. Take the Motorola “Brick” cellular phone of the 1980s. Weighing in at more than 2 pounds (1 kg) and costing thousands of dollars, it looks comical compared to its modern progeny.
The consumer reception of the devices is also dramatically different today than in the past. Many of us were fascinated by the early PCs but wondered what we could do with one. Today, it is unthinkable for a professional, to consider not having a PC. Witness the joke of a few years ago when one fellow commented that if a thief came to him and demanded: “ your laptop or your firstborn,” he would have to think about which would be the least traumatic to part with.
Why few fundamentally new devices in the past generation? I think it is because the ones developed in the early 1980s met most of the possible human consumer needs at the time. But I think the human need landscape is changing.
What can we look for in the next 25 years?
1. There will be the development of new electronic devices beyond those mentioned above. I see devices that use nano technology and bioengineering to help monitor biological processes in our bodies to improve athletic performance and aid in treating and controlling illnesses. Many seers think the 20th century will be known to historians as the century of electronics, whereas the 21st century will be the bio technology century. This may be true, but bio tech will not do what it does without electronics.
2. The auto will more and more be a computer peripheral, as computer devices monitor and control the car, communicate with safety coordinators, etc.
3. Mechanical devices will wane. Hard drives and other mechanical devices in electronics are typically less reliable. Already there are some computers that use only electronics storage. Eventually even DVD players (mechanical in that the disk spins) will be replaced by all electronic products (i.e. no moving parts)
4. Moore’s Law will continue to hold, but will require 3 D circuitry, which is already under development.
5. Silicon will continue to dominate ICs. Other materials such as gallium arsenide have always been of interest because they are fundamentally faster, but the difficulties in developing processes for them will keep silicon the king.
6. Device integration will continue, eventually there will be a cellular phone that does everything. However, human factors (e.g. the convenience of a real keyboard) will keep laptops and other macro devices in the game. Desktop computers will be rare in less than 10 years.
7. The ability to obtain information will become even more easy and cheap. Value will be in sorting out the information overload and finding that which is of real value.
8. There will be some backlash among folks who think they and their children spend too much time surfing the net, etc. It will not be uncommon for families to have “internet free” or “computer free days.”
9. There will be occasional concerns that we are too dependent on technology, especially if there is some crisis created by a large scale computer or information glitch.
10. The marriage of computers and communication, already strong, will be breathtaking and change many of the fundamentals of how people interact with each other.
Being an optimist, I think that more people will be well off than ever before, partially because of these advances. Hmm, should be an interesting time, 2032!
Acknowledgment: To the History Channel for a few of the concepts
Dr. Lasky is a Senior Technologist at Indium Corporation and a Visiting Professor at Dartmouth College. Additionally, he has over twenty years experience in electronic and optoelectronic packaging at IBM, Universal Instruments, and Cookson Electronics. You can see more his personal views on his web site Dr Lasky’s Blog (www.indium.com/drlasky).
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